Blog

Aug 14, 2023

Predicting Colorado's next three Gold Glove winners as Rockies young core flashes leather

Colorado Rockies third baseman Ryan McMahon throws to first base for the out on Oakland Athletics' Nick Allen during the second inning of a baseball game Saturday, July 29, 2023, in Denver.(AP

Colorado Rockies third baseman Ryan McMahon throws to first base for the out on Oakland Athletics' Nick Allen during the second inning of a baseball game Saturday, July 29, 2023, in Denver.(AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Nolan Arenado's spot in Colorado will always be golden.

He became the franchise's icon for fielding before being dealt to the St. Louis Cardinals. Through his eight years with the Rockies, the third baseman collected Gold Gloves in each season and even four Platinum Gloves for the National League's best overall fielder.

As the Rockies visit Busch Stadium, they have a new batch of possible winners brewing as part of their young core. Brendan Rodgers was the team's most recent winner after taking home the 2022 award for his efforts at second base. He's the only player on the roster who has won with Colorado.

In Saturday's 6-2 loss to the Cardinals, one of the Rockies' brightest young fielders made a run-saving catch in center field.

Here are some predictions for the next three Colorado Rockies Gold Glove winners by year. If the Rockies have their way, there will be more than one each season.

2023: Ryan McMahon

Arenado has won 10 Gold Gloves, but many could argue he should have nine.

Ryan McMahon and the team's former leader were in a stalemate for the award in 2021. Manny Machado rounded out the year's finalists at third base.

McMahon was not chosen despite an arguably better résumé. He posted 2.6 defensive runs above replacement to Arenado's 0.9 and Machado's 0.8.

The case for McMahon to earn his first Gold Glove this season is hard to argue. He leads all NL infielders in defensive wins above replacement (2) and has been a league best 17 runs better than average. Arenado has accounted for negative value in both categories this year.

History has played a role in many award selections. Arenado's history has likely earned him an extra piece of hardware. This year's numbers indicate that even history shouldn't be able to overcome the difference in numbers.

2024: Brenton Doyle

Hitting shouldn't play a role in Gold Glove awards but it often does.

The league's best fielders are often subject to a tiebreaker, and it is often their value at the plate or name recognition. As long as Brenton Doyle doesn't need that tiebreaker, he figures to win the award in short order.

Plays like his diving catch along the warning track Saturday are not made by more than a handful of players in the league.

In just 76 games as a rookie, the outfielder has already collected 1.1 defensive wins above replacement. That's the major's fifth-best mark among outfielders — three of the four ahead of him have played more games, and Nicky Lopez is purely a defensive replacement. Doyle's nine runs saved above average is also a top-10 mark in the majors.

"We were told by player development that he's a very good outfielder with a strong arm who could play big-league defense right now," manager Bud Black said. "Sometimes, you get reports about players and sometimes we don't see them (play out). It's good to see (Doyle)."

If a logjam didn't exist at the position, the Rockies may have allowed more time for Doyle early in the season. With it, he could have been in the running to win the award as a rookie. In July he saved six runs defensively.

The opportunity wasn't afforded to Doyle early, but recent trades and the expiring contract of Charlie Blackmon signal that he'll play every game he can for the foreseeable future. With a full season, he's a virtual lock for the award just as soon.

2025: Ezequiel Tovar

Ezequiel Tovar is the latest iteration of a Rockies' development system that succeeds with shortstops.

Troy Tulowitzki gave way to Trevor Story's breakout before Tovar's addition extended the production window once again. The Venezuelan shortstop is in his first full season but already showing his fielding ability.

Tovar has 11 runs saved over league average in 102 games this year and 1.7 defensive wins above replacement. Only Ha-Seong Kim (1.9) and Dansby Swanson (1.8) have outperformed the rookie so far, and both have played more games.

Projecting forward, the work ethic Tovar has shown in the majors should allow him to keep making strides in the field. Swanson and Kim project as his biggest competition in the next three seasons. The former will be in his age-31 season and Kim will be 29.

The award may come sooner than 2025, but a look at the competition shows that he'll bypass competitors soon enough, and Tovar is only 22 years old.

What Happened: The Cardinals woke up on offense against The Rockies' Ty Blach and scored four runs against the lefty to pull away for good and set up Sunday's rubber match with the Rockies' winningest pitcher this year on the mound.

On the mound: Blach's streak of 9⅔ scoreless innings since becoming a starter came to an end with Tyler O' Neill's second inning homer. He allowed four earned runs over 4⅔ innings. Tommy Doyle helped limit the damage initially but allowed a two-run triple in the sixth. Colorado's Connor Seabold tossed a pair of scoreless innings with two strikeouts.

At the plate: Ryan McMahon hit his 100th career home run of 19th of the season in the eighth inning. Brendan Rodgers had a pair of Colorado's seven hits. The Rockies put just three into scoring position and went hitless with them there.

What's next: Colorado Rockies (LHP Austin Gomber, 8-8) at St. Louis Cardinals (TBD) at 12:15 p.m. MT on Sunday at Busch Stadium (AT&T SportsNet).

ALBUQUERQUE — The little man in Aaron Schunk's head nearly cost him a chance to live out a dream.